专访波兰前副总理：究竟谁需要一场“新冷战”？

导读

波兰前副总理、北京师范大学一带一路学院特聘教授格热戈日·科沃德科 (Grzegorz W. Kolodko) 日前作客中国日报新媒体与中国观察智库联合推出的访谈节目《连线·全球政要看中国十年》，就中国经济社会发展、全球化、中美和中欧关系及其他国际热点问题分享了自己的观点。

科沃德科指出，中国经过几十年的和平务实发展，成为世界经济的重要引擎，但却招致一些西方国家的敌意。美国近年来推行一系列仇中反华政策，欲针对中国挑起“新冷战”，这是历史性的失策，非常危险。他认为，在气候变化、经济衰退、移民、军事冲突等多重共同挑战的威胁下，世界不应分裂为敌对的两个板块，而应把中国和西方国家的发展倡议结合起来，协调一致促进地区发展。今年中共二十大即将召开，科沃德科期待这次大会能够更好展现中国作为一个负责任的大国形象，更好向国际社会阐释中国议程和中国目标。

嘉宾：格热戈日·科沃德科

(Grzegorz W. Kolodko)

波兰前副总理兼财政部长

华沙科兹敏斯基大学教授

北京师范大学一带一路学院特聘教授

中国是世界发展引擎而非威胁

主持人：

让我们首先来聊聊一些有关中国的话题。听说您30年前就曾到访中国，这些年来您看到的中国有什么变化？

Let's start with some questions about China. I heard that you first came to China about 30 years ago. What changes have you seen in all these years?

科沃德科：

我第一次来到中国是在1989年8月，时值盛夏，距离现在刚好是三分之一个世纪。那时的世界与如今大不相同。中国众多的人口和辽阔的国土令我印象深刻。

My first visit to China was in the summer. It was August 1989, say exactly, a third of a century ago. And that was a different world. And I was very much impressed by the might of China in terms of the people, of the vast country.

自那以后，中国的发展日新月异。我曾数十次访问中国。如果回到1989年，那时的我，那时的所有人都绝对无法想象中国会取得如此惊人的发展成就。如今，随着经济的发展，绝对贫困在中国已经销声匿迹。可以说，中国这个世界人口第一大国取得了全人类历史上最伟大的经济进步。这些成就令我深受震撼，这也是为什么我如此关注中国的原因。我想要更好了解中国究竟经历了哪些变化，这些变化是如何发生的，其他国家可以从中国的发展成就和问题挫折中吸取哪些经验教训。没有一个国家，没有一个地区不会在发展过程中遇到问题。我认为，中国的政界、学界领导人们非常清醒地认识到了中国遇到的问题，且正采取措施努力解决。

And since that time, the things change. I've been dozens of times to China. And if I go back to 1989, absolutely, not only myself, I think nobody at that time would expect such horrendous economic progress has occurred in China. Now due to the development there is no any extreme poverty anymore. So, China has made the greatest economic progress in the most populous country in the course of history, not only during our lifetime and I’m very much impressed by these achievements. And that is why I do pay so much attention to China to understand better what is going on, how the things happen and what are the lessons the other countries may learn from China’s success and also from certain problems and failures, which you do have in China. There is not a country; there is not a place with the luck of no problems. But I think that the political and intellectual leaders are very much aware of these problems and they are trying to address the issues.

主持人：

那么，中国的什么成就最令您印象最为深刻？是政治方面的还是经济方面的？

So, what is the greatest impression China has made on you, it is economic or political?

科沃德科：

我是个经济学家，因此我首先关注经济问题。

I’m an economist. And first of all, I’m taking a look into the economic matters.

首先，中国成功让数亿人摆脱贫困。我不是要拿中国和美国比较，公平来看，我们应该拿中国与印度进行比较。这样比较之下，我们就能看到中国的巨大进步。30年前，1991年，印度的人均GDP高于中国，而现在，中国的人均GDP至少是印度的三倍。现在，中国已经完全不存在世界银行定义的以购买力平价计算人均日收入不足1.9美元的绝对贫困人口了。中国已经消除了绝对贫困，这是中国经济和社会政策的巨大成功。

First things first, China has taken off hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. I'm comparing China nt with the United States. Sometimes, also it is justifying, we should compare China with India. I'm comparing China with India. And here we see the tremendous China’s progress. While GDP per capita in India in 1991 -- 30 years ago -- was higher than that in China, now, Chinese GDP per capita is at least three times higher than it is in India. Now we do not have so-called extreme poverty measured according to the World Bank definition, $1.9 purchasing power parity per capita per day. Not at all. It's been erased. And this is the very great success of China’s economic and social policies.

这种比较以及一些其他的比较研究向我们生动展示了中国的改革、中国的体制和经济政策是多么的成功。

So this comparison and some other comparative measures are telling us how successful has been the Chinese course of economic reforms, and the Chinese system with the economic policy.

主持人：

您会用什么词语概括中国这十年取得的成就？

What words would you use to summarize China’s economic achievements in the last 10 years?

科沃德科：

我认为过去十年，中国的国际地位发生了不可逆转的重大变化。现在，中国是世界经济发展的引擎之一，在政治和军事领域也跻身强国行列，但并没有给世界带来任何负面影响，也没有逆转全球化的趋势。然而，对于中国国际地位的变化，国际社会颇有争议。一些人乐见中国在过去的十年里不断强大，但另一些人却对中国的崛起感到担忧。在一些西方国家，尤其是美国和英国，对中国的批评之声不绝于耳，此类批评在法国、德国和波兰要少一些，但还是煽动了不少针对中国的敌意。

Well, I think that the last 10 years, they have changed significantly -- and in an irreversible way -- China’s international position. Now, China is one of the engines of the world economic development, but also a powerhouse in political and also military meaning without the consequences for the world and for the irreversibility of globalization. But what are the consequences? It is disputable. Some people are very happy that China has strengthen so much in the last 10 years, but some other people are very much concerned. You must be aware how much of criticism is in some Western countries, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom. I would say much less in France and Germany, also less in Poland, but that is also driving some hostility towards China.

在我看来，中国的对外政策不以扩张为导向，而是从务实角度出发，着眼于对外政策如何能服务于中国发展大势，维持中国的社会经济发展。我认为这是习近平主席提出全球瞩目的“一带一路”倡议的初心和第一推动力。“一带一路”倡议是中国近十年来推出的代表性合作框架。当然，有人对这个倡议感到担心甚至害怕，但我对其信任有加，还对其寄予厚望。

China’s international policy, as I think, oriented not for world expansion, but is run from a pragmatic viewpoint -- how external Chinese policies may contribute to sustaining the momentum, sustaining the social and economic development in China. That is also, I think, the driving force or founding cause of the Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is making such an impression all over the world. So, the Belt and Road Initiative is one of the trademarks of the last 10 years, and again, somebody is concerned or even afraid of this initiative. I do not. I put some trust; I put down some hope in this initiative.

　　图片来源：新华社

当今世界面临多重挑战

主持人：

您认为当今全球经济面临的主要挑战是什么?

What are the main challenges the global economy faces today, in your opinion?

科沃德科：

挑战多种多样。当前全球经济形势瞬息万变。一条新闻即使今晚上网、次日登报，当读者最终看到它的时候，信息也有可能已经过时了。当我想写一本论述全球化不可逆转的书时，更是极其困难，因为旬日之间世界局势就可能发生重大变化。只要看看俄乌冲突就知道了，两国的军事斗争牵动了众多全球性问题，引发了一系列非武力的间接博弈。很多国家，尤其是北约国家，正在为乌克兰提供武器，战事引发了全球能源危机和粮食供应危机，进而又将推动这些国家采取经济刺激和人道主义移民政策。

You know, when we say there are challenges, there is plenty of them. The situation is indeed very dynamic. When your newspaper is to be printed online tonight or in paper tomorrow, there is also some kind of risk that your message can become obsolete when somebody will read it. But when you write a book on the irreversibility of globalization, as I do, it's extremely difficult because the situation changes sometimes very significantly on day-to-day basis. Just take a look into the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has engaged in non-military, non-directly fighting matters. So many countries, especially NATO, the countries of which are supplying Ukraine with weapons, which has the global consequences for the energy crisis, for the food supply crisis, which will fuel further their encouragement of economic and humanitarian driven migrations.

说到移民问题，这是当今世界面临的最大挑战之一。大量非洲、中东和南亚移民涌入欧洲；从中南美洲和加勒比地区涌向美国的移民也与日俱增；各大洲内部——非洲内部，亚洲内部的人口流动规模也在扩大。不可阻挡的国际人口的迁移正带来一系列次生问题。再说安全问题，各国似乎正展开一场新军备竞赛。还有经济问题，我很关心全球经济如何重回发展轨道。还有通货膨胀问题。在中国或日本这样的国家，通胀问题尚不严重，但在大多数欧盟国家，在北美，在拉丁美洲，通胀问题已十分严重，在俄罗斯和土耳其更甚。这一问题的难点在于：如何能在缓解通胀的同时保证经济增长和就业率。更要引起重视的是：通货膨胀、不平等、债务、贫困这些经济方面的问题正在引发一系列政治问题。

So, migration of the people who is one of the biggest challenge in the contemporary world. And this international migration of people is unstoppable and it is causing very many problems. we will see an influx of migrants from Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, to Europe. There will be more of them coming from Middle and South America and Caribbean islands through North America, especially to the United States. We will see also movement of the people within the continents, within Africa, within Asia, and it will be causing very many problems. The problem of security is a very big issue. The new military build-up spiral, and also the economic issues which are our economists’ concern, the getting momentum again, inflation. It is not that much of headache in countries like China or Japan. But it is a big problem in most of the European Union countries, in North America, in Latin America, much more, say, in Russia and in Turkey than in Spain or Italy. the question is how to counter inflation without causing recession and growing unemployment. And these problems on economic side -- inflation, inequality, public debt, poverty, they are causing several problems on the political side of the world.

从这个角度来看，目前的局势不仅是有挑战和困难这么简单，而是蕴含着巨大风险。要应对上述问题，我们不仅要建立起一套以专业知识为基础的经济体系，更要以专业知识为基础制定政策，构建政治体系。现在的很多政策过于感性，不是由理性驱动的。因此，我主要关心的是，如何使不可逆转的全球化——无论是经济还是政治领域的全球化，变得更加理性，以保持自全球化带来的经济发展势头仍然是促进各国社会、经济和生态发展的积极因素。

And from this perspective, this situation is not only challenging and difficult. It is just risky. It calls for not only knowledge-based economy about which we are talking so much. It also calls for knowledge-based policies and politics. The politics is driven mostly by emotions, not by reason, not by rationality. So my main concern at the summer of 2022 is how to make irreversible globalization, both in economic and political sense, more rational, to sustain the momentum since globalization will be still a proactive factor in social, economic, and ecological development.

最后我们说说环境问题，这并不是个新问题。有人说，关于保护自然环境，应对气候变暖的讨论太多了。相关讨论够不够多我不知道，但实际行动肯定是不够的。政治摩擦、军事紧张、经济放缓等各种问题，占据了各国政府——包括中国，但更主要是西欧、东欧还有北美国家太多的注意力，让他们根本无暇顾及气候变化这一关乎人类生存的挑战。

And now you have the environment. That is nothing new. Somebody says that there's too much talking about protection of natural environment, counteracting warming of the climate. I'm not sure is it too much talking, but definitely there is not enough doing, and the political tensions, the military tensions, the other economic problems are driving, again, the attention of the policymakers -- I'm afraid that to some extent, maybe also in China, but to much bigger extent, say in Western Europe, Eastern Europe or North America -- from focusing on fighting the warming of the climate, which is the existential challenge for the future of the mankind.

　　图片来源：新华社

美国挑起新冷战非常危险

主持人：

现在我们来谈谈中美问题。您对美国最近对华政策的调整有何看法？

Now we're talking about the Sino-US problems. The United States is adjusting its policies towards China. What's your opinion on this?

科沃德科：

非常不看好。美国的举动令我深感不安。最让我失望的要数拜登任职总统后的作为。特朗普黯然退场后，我还一度希望他的继任者，也就是拜登，能够叫停既有的仇中或反华政策。这些反华政策打着“让美国再次伟大”的旗号重回保护主义，诸如此类，不过是美国式的妄自尊大。这是“第二次冷战”。第一次冷战在1989-1991年间就结束了，我们波兰还为终结冷战贡献良多，但不幸的是，现如今新一轮冷战又卷土重来，所以这是“第二次冷战”——实际上我在八年前就有过这样的说法。新冷战的发起方不是中国，也不是俄罗斯，而是美国。美国总统拜登正不遗余力地继续新冷战，某些国家还推波助澜，尤其是像英国和一些欧盟小国。所以迄今为止，美国的头号政敌就是中国。

Very negative. I'm very, very upset by the American behavior. My great disappointment is Joe Biden's presidency. I was putting some hope that when Mr Trump was driven out of the White House, his successor -- who turned to be Mr Biden -- will cease, will finish this Sinophobic or just anti-Chinese policy -- “Making America Great Again”, returning to protectionism, certain American megalomania, etc. This is the Second Cold War. The first was finished in 1989-1991, with great contribution of Poland. Unfortunately, now there is again the Cold War, so this is the Second Cold War. Actually, I used the term already eight years ago. It was initiated not by China, not by Russia. It was initiated by the United States, and it is being continued by American presidency, American State under the Biden presidency, with great support of some countries, like, for instance, especially the United Kingdom or some smaller countries in the European Union. So until recently, a number of political enemies of the US: number one was China.

谁需要这场冷战？这是个问题。首先，需要这场冷战的是军工复合体及其在政界和媒体界的支持者。我们也因此被卷入到军备竞赛之中。这是非常危险的。这种危险不仅来源于某种威胁、个别错误或局部军事冲突，还因为这是历史性的失策。我认为，如果不削减军费，那么应对气候变暖的努力将困难重重，甚至可以说成功的希望十分渺茫。军费开支十分昂贵，极其烧钱——而且烧的还是公款，是纳税人的钱和政府的钱。然而应对气候变暖也是道阻且长，同样成本高昂。那么，我们的钱从何处来呢？从削减教育或医疗保健方面的社会开支中来吗？那是无稽之谈。从叫停与家庭生活和企业生产息息相关的那些基础设施项目中来吗？那也是无稽之谈。要想实现联合融资，落实私营经济绿色转型和可再生能源开发的努力，我们唯一的资金来源是终止军备竞赛，叫停并扭转军费开支的螺旋式上升——30年前我们就是这样做的。

Who needs this Cold War? That's a question. Well, first of all, the military industrial complex, and their political and media supporters. So we've got involved in the military arms race. And this is very risky, not only because of a threat, of some mistake, and another military conflict of here or there. This is the historical blunder, because, make no mistake, listen to what I'm saying right now, it will be extremely difficult, if at all possible, to counter successfully warming of the climate without cutting military expenses. Military expenses are very costly, and they absorb money, our public money or taxpayer money or government's money. But fighting the warming of the climate is a long shot, and it is also very, very expensive. Therefore, where do we take the money from? From cutting the social expenses for education or healthcare? That would be nonsense. From stopping some of our infrastructure projects, which are needed for household and entrepreneurial sectors? That would be a nonsense. The only reservoir where there is the money to be taken off for co-financing, the private sector effort to shift to green economy and to develop renewable energy sources attempts, is to reverse the arms race, to stop and reverse the military spiral as we've done it 30 years ago.

主持人：

您认为新冷战有和平解决方案吗?

Is there a peaceful solution for the New Cold War?

科沃德科：

如何结束这场新冷战呢？我对美国现任领导班子和北约那些主要成员国已经不抱什么期望了，他们不会在这方面出多少力的。倒是中国释放的一些信号或许能够极大地鼓舞人心。让我们浇灭对第二次冷战的狂热吧，让我们尝试携手再现30年前的义举。让我们把军费削减三分之一，而非扩张三分之一。否则，人们会陷入饥饿困境，会面临生存危机，会上街示威斗争。那样一来，我们会成为历史的罪人，作为始作俑者的当今相关国家的领导层就该遭到谴责。因为这些问题不是天灾而是人祸，它们不由客观外力引起，而是决策错误所致。不过，病根虽然找到了，但治疗却尚未跟上。也就是说，问题都是有解的，但言而不行，解决方案就是纸上谈兵，问题也不必然会得到解决。当然，解决问题的可能性还是有的，所以我们仍有理由保持乐观。

So how to end this Cold War? I don't expect any significant effort in this direction from the current leadership of the United States and the crucial NATO members. So maybe some signal from Beijing. Maybe some. That will be very, very encouraging. Let's stop this craziness with Second Cold War. Let's try to do jointly, together something similar to what has been done three decades ago. And let's cut the military expenses by one-third. Don't increase them by one-third, because otherwise, people will be hungry. People will be dying. People will be on our streets fighting and demonstrating against such irreality. And we will be blamed. And who else supposed to be blamed is now the leadership which is causing the problems. They are not caused by nature. They are not caused by external objective factors. They are caused by policy mistakes. And there is a diagnosis, but there's not yet a therapy. So now, all the problems we are talking about are solvable. There is a solution, but it does not imply that we are on the path to solve them. And that does not imply that they will be solved. But they may be solved, and that's some reason for optimism.

　　图片来源：东方IC

中欧应携手推动地区发展

主持人：

您如何评价当前中国与波兰的关系?

How would you describe the Sino-Polish relations today?

科沃德科：

波中关系很不错，特别是相较欧盟其他国家和北约成员国与中国的关系而言，波中关系可以说是非常好了。尽管西方和中国之间存在贸易战，但波中贸易一直在发展。

They are good, relatively very good if you compare our relations with the relations between some other EU and NATO members with China. Our trade, despite the trade war between the West and China, trade terms are always growing.

而且我要着重明确和强调的是，我们波兰不是被美国、北约的鹰派政客和反华阵营牵着鼻子走的。在波兰不存在英美政界的“恐华症”，相反，中国的文化、自然、经济等等，都激发了波兰人民的兴趣和共情。就此而言，波兰可以在改善欧洲与中国，或欧亚与中国的关系中发挥重要作用。我们不妨看看西方——主要是英美的某些经济学家、知识分子、智库和政客的论调。他们设想了一个割裂的未来世界，世界地图被一分为二，一边是由美国和欧盟领导的西方，另一边是由中国和俄罗斯领导的东方——注意这里的次序，是中国和俄罗斯，不是俄罗斯和中国。而且英美可能借经济手段，甚至军事震慑，将其他国家强行划入这两个阵营。

And Poland, which I want to emphasize significantly and clearly, we were not driven by Americans, by the US, by the hawkish politicians of NATO and anti-Chinese camp. There is no Sinophobia in Poland as it is in some political circles in Britain or the United States. There is rather plenty of interest and sympathy towards China's culture, China's nature, China's economy, and so on. So from this perspective, Poland may play an important role and be a significant factor in the improvement of European or Eurasian relations with China. Take a look, for instance, the economists, some intellectuals, some think tanks, and of course the politicians of the West. Again, first of all, Americans and British. They are envisioning the future of the world as splitted, this map in two blocks -- one, West led by the United States and European Union, and second, East led by China and Russia --This time in this sequence, China and Russia, not Russia and China.

而我的愿景和主张与他们不同。展望未来，我不将世界看作由美国和中国领导的两个敌对板块，而是将其视为欧亚大陆与欧洲-大西洋两部分。那么你看，欧洲同时存在于这两部分中。一方面，我们属于欧洲-大西洋板块，是经济一体化、政治共同体和北约军事联盟的一部分。但另一方面，我们也是欧亚大陆的一员。波兰在这两个方面的地位都非常特殊，因为在某种意义上，我们处于东西方的交界处。

And there may be economic facility and even sometime they may use some military leverage to bring into these two blocks the other countries from all over the world. My vision, my proposition is different. Instead of driving, going and visioning the world in the future as two hostile blocks led by the US and China, I'm saying that it can consist of two parts, Eurasia, and Euro-Atlantic. Take a look, Europe is in both. We are part of Euro-Atlantic structure, economic integration, political mutual ground, military alliance of NATO, etc. But we are also a member, part of Eurasia. And Poland is a very specific country in both, because we are at the border between West and East in some sense.

因此我建议，对于像“下一代欧盟”复兴计划、中国的“一带一路”倡议和“16+1”机制这些涉及基础设施投资的项目，中欧双方与其相互竞争，不如让来自欧盟委员会和中国政府的专家心平气和地坐下来，务实磋商如何将后疫情时代的“下一代欧盟”复兴计划与“一带一路”倡议框架下的“16+1”合作机制这两个伟大的基础设施计划相结合，用以改善中东欧国家的基础设施，推动地区经济发展，促进贸易往来、经济一体化、合作共赢与兼容并包的全球化进展提质增效，这符合中欧双方的共同利益。我想再次申明，对于我们现在谈论的所有这些挑战，都存在解决之法，但可惜的是，我们尚未真正开始着手解决这些问题，这一点值得注意。

So therefore, instead of competing, say, between infrastructure investment projects, Next Generation of the European Union, and Belt and Road Initiative, “16+1” of China, I would propose that, for instance, experts from European Commission and from Chinese government sit down at the table and pragmatically negotiate how to combine these two great infrastructure programs, Next Generation of European Union in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and “16+1” within Belt and Road Initiative to improve the infrastructure of East-Central European economies to contribute to their development and to make the trade, the economic integration, the win-win, the inclusive globalization which is very much an interest of both China and Europe, more efficient. One more time, all these challenges we are talking about, they do have the solution. But unfortunately, we are not yet on the way, on the road to solve these problems. You must be very careful.

主持人：

今年，中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会将在北京召开，您对此有何期待？

The 20th National Congress of the CPC will convene in Beijing this year. What is your expectation for the meeting?

科沃德科：

我期待中国共产党领导人能够妥善应对国内外的挑战，在处理好国内问题的同时，兼顾对外立场。我希望中共二十大的一大成就将是，中国的外交官、知识分子、媒体、政治家能够增信释疑，让我们这些身处世界其他地区的人们了解真正的中国议程和中国目标，让我们相信中国政府不仅代表着中国人民，还会对中国之外的人民展现负责任大国的形象，承担起共同的责任。在这一点上，事实胜于雄辩。中国必须证明其不具有侵略性，中国不会攻击任何人，而是乐于并致力于与所有人合作，只要这些人能以开放的心态促进对华关系。这是中国可以做到的，也是应该做的。中国真的做得到吗？让我们拭目以待。

I expect that China's ruling party leaders will correctly address the domestic and international challenges and will find an answer how to address the domestic problems in a compatible way with external position of China. I think that it will be an achievement if in the aftermath of the Congress of the Communist Party, your diplomacy, your intellectuals, your media, your politicians, will be capable to convince us in the remaining parts of the world about the true Chinese agenda, aims, targets, and to convince the people China is indeed working not only on behalf of the Chinese people which is obvious but with the accountability, responsibility or co-responsibility for the people elsewhere. So more deeds, less words. China must prove that China is not assaultive, that China is not going to attack anybody else, but is ready and committed to cooperate with everybody else if this everybody will be open for further development of relations with China. That may happen. That should happen. Will it happen? Let's wait and see.

主持人：

您对中国的未来有何展望？

So what is your foresee about China's future?

科沃德科：

我对中国的看法很积极。不过正如我多次提及的，中国的经济增长会放缓，但中国经济能够避免“硬着陆”。即便是就目前的市场汇率而非购买力平价而言，中国经济体量超越美国也是指日可待。中国人口老龄化日益加重，这将成为一大挑战。老龄化现象其实在日本、在西欧、在德国、波兰、在欧盟的27个国家都是个挑战。此外，我还希望中国不要卷入任何外部冲突，我希望中国的国际影响力只是通过和平的途径、以经济影响力的形式在世界范围内发挥作用。对全球可持续发展而言，中国仍是机会，而非威胁。这就是我对于未来的期待。

Positive. But as I said several times, economic growth would be slower. China is able to avoid so-called hard landing. China's economy will be soon bigger than American even on the current exchange rate basis, not on the power purchasing parity. China's society will be aging, which will be growing challenge for China, as they have already seen in Japan or we in Western Europe, in Germany, in Poland, and in actually each 27 countries of the European Union. And I hope that China will not get involved in any external conflict, that China’s international significance will be only filled in a peaceful and economic influence manner all over the world. China will remain a chance for the world's sustainable development, not a threat. These are my expectations for the forthcoming future.

　　图片来源：视觉中国

出品人：王浩

监制：柯荣谊 宋平

制片：张少伟

记者：沈一鸣 栗思月 栾瑞英 张钊 刘夏

实习生：吕文祎 王博麟 杨恒瑞 袁嘉忆

中国观察智库

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