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对抗中国成共识?根本不存在!美知名智库专家重申:中国不是敌人 | 外媒说

来源:中国日报
2019-07-12 13:20 

7月3日,一封致特朗普总统和国会议员的公开信——《把中国当成美国的敌人于事无补》(Making China a US enemy is counterproductive),轰动了中美两国政策圈。

 

这封信发表在《华盛顿邮报》上,由五位美国资深中国问题专家和前政府官员领衔起草,95名外交、学术、政界、商界、军界等名人联合签署,因而又被称为“百人信”。

 

 

《华盛顿邮报上这封公开信的标题为:中国并非敌人

 

起草人美国前驻华大使芮效俭、卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员史文、麻省理工学院教授傅泰林、前国务院代理助卿董云裳、前哈佛大学教授傅高义,在信中表达了对特朗普执政以来中美关系不断恶化的担忧,对美国政府现行对华政策提出质疑,并就美国对华政策提出了七点意见。

 

7月9日,在清华大学主办的第八届世界和平论坛现场,起草人之一的史文(Michael Swaine)首次对中国媒体讲述这封公开信背后的故事。

 

2019年7月9日,在北京出席第八届世界和平论坛的卡内基国际和平研究院资深研究员史文召开新闻发布会,就公开信进行说明。(图自视觉中国)

 

1

 

对抗中国成为共识?

NO!这种说法根本不存在!

 

在第八届世界和平论坛新闻发布会现场,史文表示,发表公开信的初衷是希望召集来自各界的知识渊博、经验丰富的重要人士,而不仅仅是中国专家,对当前美国在处理对华关系时出现的对立趋势,提出令人信服的评判。

The original purpose of the open letter was to put together a sizable number of important, knowledgeable and experienced people in many different areas, not just China experts, to offer a respectable critique of the current trend toward adversarial relationship with China.

他透露,最初在公开信上签名的人数是100位,目前,人数不断上涨,已经超过了150位。

对我而言,这样大量的签名就说明了一个问题,我们以前常常重复这样一个观点——美国政策专家、商界以及军队就对中国采取对抗性或敌对立场达成明确共识,这种观点实际上是错误的。根本不存在这样的共识。

This number of people to me indicates that the often repeated notion that there is a clear consensus in the US among policy experts and among business and military people in support of a confrontational or adversarial stance toward China is wrong. No such consensus exists.

民调显示,美国人民根本不支持对华采取对抗性立场或采取极端政策。

美国许多相关人士反对政府在某些领域对华采取极端政策。从民意调查来看,美国大众似乎也并不支持这样的政策。

Many very relevant people in the United States oppose the more extreme policies of the US government toward China in some areas. And the American public in general don't seem to support it either, judging by an opinion poll.

 

2

 

中美关系并非只有两种选择

 

史文认为,中美之间需要在很多领域保持合作关系。他明确表示,撰写这封公开信,不是为了让中美关系退回早期的对华政策,而是在过去的政策和现行政策之间寻求一个合理的中间立场。

很多批评人士认为,这封信是呼吁美国回到过去的对华政策,好像我们只有两个选择:要么是选择特朗普政府的现行政策,要么是回到过去的对华政策。我认为这是错误的。这并不是唯一选择。这封信赞同与中国进行持续且深入的接触,而并非简单地回到过去的对华政策。

Many people who criticize this letter as a call for a return to past US policies toward China as if the only alternatives that we face are between the current policies of the Trump administration and the polices of the past. This is wrong in my view. These are not the only alternatives. The letter certainly endorses continuing deep engagement with China. It doesn't vision a simple return to the past.

 

美国应该在发展与中国的关系上存在一个合理的中间立场,采取这样的立场应该基于事实,而非夸夸其谈。签名的人也都认为在过去的政策和现行政策之间应该有一个合理的中间立场。这将意味着在某些领域需要有新的方法。让(美国政府)意识到中美需要以有意义的方式在许多领域保持合作关系。

There is a reasonable middle ground, based more on facts and not rhetoric or hyperbole, that the United States should be developing in its relations with China. That is what I believe the signers envision that there is a reasonable middle ground between the past policies and the current policies. That would involve new approaches in certain areas. ……would recognize the meaningful ways they need for China and the US to remain cooperative in many areas.

 

3

 

贸易战会“殃及池鱼”

 

史文认为,因为中美发展路径不同,就要将中美经济“脱钩”,减少中美贸易,“这种观点严重错误”。

有人认为中国对美国构成了根本性威胁,即使不切断中美贸易,也要减少贸易往来。因为中美在根本上存在差异,必须将中美经济关系脱钩。我认为这种观点严重错误。不能这样做,这样做是适得其反,甚至对两国而言具有破坏性。

There is also a belief that because China supposively represents a fundamental threat to the US. Trade relations need to be reduced if not cut off. There has to be decoupling from the US and Chinese economies because China and the US differ fundamentally. I think that viewpoint is seriously wrong. I think it's impossible to do and I think there would be counterproductive and destructive for both China and the United States.

 

他表示,贸易战带来的负面影响最终会作用于美国民众,甚至殃及其他国家。

随着关税战的升级,可能会对中美两国以及世界其他国家产生造成越来越大的损害。我认为,关税战的负面影响会随着时间不断加剧,影响美国及其他地方的民众。

You could get growing damage to both countries and to other countries from an escalating tariff war. I think the negative consequences of the tariff war will grow over time and affect the public in the United States and elsewhere.

 

4

 

谁说签名的“老同志”想法守旧?

 

公开信发表后,有人曾对此提出质疑,聚焦点是签名人的年龄问题。

有人批评说,这封信的签名人都是些“老同志”,他们守旧,想要拥护旧的政策。我认为,这种观点从根本上是错误的

There's some criticism that the people who signed this letter were sort of the old guys, the old-line people, who wanted to have the old policies.I just think that's fundamentally wrong.

 

对此,史文回应称,联名“上书”的都是各个领域颇有成就和见地的人,而这些人碰巧是“老同志”。

可以看到,签署这封联名信的人,有些曾是政府高级官员,虽然他们对中国有不同的观点,但他们始终认为现在在美国,至少是在华盛顿以及大多数媒体中占据主导地位的观点是消极的。他们提出反对意见,认为这种政策是事与愿违的。

You can see the people who signed this letter. There are some very senior former officials, a range of different viewpoints on China who still believe the current negative mindset that is dominant in the US, in Washington at least and among lot of the media. They disagree with that, they think its counterproductive.

 

我们想要联合那些颇有名望的人来签署这封公开信。而他们碰巧都是些“老同志”,因为他们经历的多。

We want to get people who are widely well known and respected to sign this letter. They happen to be old people. Because they've been around longer.

史文也表示,他们希望更多年轻的力量来表达自己的观点。

 

我们也希望得到年轻人的签名。在我的印象中,其他签名人中有不少是年轻学者,包括中国问题专家。

But we also want to get younger people to sign as well. And my impression is that quite a few of the additional signers for this letter are younger scholars, China scholars and others who have signed on this letter as well.

 

这封公开信到底说了什么?CD君帮大家梳理了几个关键点↓↓

 

我们来自学术界、国际政治、军事及商界,绝大多数来自美国,其中有许多人的工作都致力于亚洲地区的各项事务。我们对中美关系日益恶化感到深深的担忧,我们认为中美关系恶化不符合美国,乃至全球的利益需求。

We are members of the scholarly, foreign policy, military and business communities, overwhelmingly from the United States, including many who have focused on Asia throughout our professional careers. We are deeply concerned about the growing deterioration in U.S. relations with China, which we believe does not serve American or global interests.

 

1

 

中国不是美国的敌人

我们既不相信中国是我们经济上的敌人,也不认为它会对美国国家安全构成威胁,所以我们没必要在各个领域都与之抗衡。

We do not believe Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone.

 

适当平衡竞争和合作,美国的积极措施可以有效帮助中国在国际事务中发挥更具建设性的作用。

With the right balance of competition and cooperation, U.S. actions can strengthen those Chinese leaders who want China to play a constructive role in world affairs.

 

2

 

伤“敌一千,自损八百

美国将中国视为敌人并试图使其与全球经济脱钩的做法,有损美国的国际地位和声誉,甚至威胁所有国家的经济利益。美国的抵制不会阻止中国经济的持续扩张、中国企业在全球市场上的份额增长以及中国在国际事务中的地位提升。

U.S. efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy will damage the United States' international role and reputation and undermine the economic interests of all nations. U.S. opposition will not prevent the continued expansion of the Chinese economy, a greater global market share for Chinese companies and an increase in China's role in world affairs.

 

此外,美国在着力减缓中国崛起的同时,也耗损着美国经济。如果美国对其盟国施压,要求他们将中国视为经济和政治上敌人,将削弱美国与这些盟国之间的联系。最终被孤立的,可能不是中国,而是美国自己。

Moreover, the United States cannot significantly slow China's rise without damaging itself. If the United States presses its allies to treat China as an economic and political enemy, it will weaken its relations with those allies and could end up isolating itself rather than Beijing.

 

3

 

美国应关注自身发展,而非遏制中国

 

中国不断增长的军事实力已经动摇了美国长期以来在西太平洋地区的军事主导地位。美国最好的回应方式不是与中国公然展开以进攻性、深度打击武器为核心的开放式军备竞赛,也不是试图实现重新确立美国在直抵中国边界地区的绝对主导地位的荒谬理想。

 

Beijing's growing military capabilities have already eroded the United States' long-standing military preeminence in the Western Pacific. The best way to respond to this is not to engage in an open-ended arms race centered on offensive, deep-strike weapons and the virtually impossible goal of reasserting full-spectrum U.S. dominance up to China's borders.

 

更明智的政策应是加强与盟国的合作,维持威慑力,加强防御性区域的抵御能力,培育作战韧性,提高挫败对美国及盟国袭击的能力,同时加强应对中方危机的管理工作。

A wiser policy is to work with allies to maintain deterrence, emphasizing defensive-oriented, area denial capabilities, resiliency and the ability to frustrate attacks on U.S. or allied territory, while strengthening crisis-management efforts with Beijing.

 

维护美国利益应该是通过振兴美国在不断发展变化世界中有效竞争的能力,加强与其他国家和国际组织的合作,而非通过破坏和遏制中国与世界交融这一适得其反的做法来实现的。

The United States' interests are best served by restoring its ability to compete effectively in a changing world and by working alongside other nations and international organizations rather than by promoting a counterproductive effort to undermine and contain China's engagement with the world.

 

4

 

拒绝零和博弈

 

中国的参与,对国际体系的续存以及气候变化等国际共同问题的有效解决,起着重要的作用。美国应该鼓励中国参与到新的全球体制中来。在新的体制中,新兴崛起的国家有更大的发言权。以"零和博弈"的方式对待中国,只会鼓励中国脱离全球体制或另创一套破坏西方利益、分裂全球的秩序。

China's engagement in the international system is essential to the system’s survival and to effective action on common problems such as climate change. The United States should encourage Chinese participation in new or modified global regimes in which rising powers have a greater voice. A zero-sum approach to China's role would only encourage Beijing to either disengage from the system or sponsor a divided global order that would be damaging to Western interest.

 

毫无疑问,这封公开信的起草人和签名人所表现出来的立场和政治倾向,以及他们为了美国利益而应对中国的态度是不言自明的。

 

然而,他们的结论是美国不应与中国为敌,在美国国内和世界上不存在支持对华采取全面敌对立场的共识,坚持与中国脱钩必将损害美国自身利益和所有国家利益。

 

他们看到中国经济持续增长不可阻挡,中国崛起无法减缓,美国只有努力增强自己的竞争力,才能在再次强大起来。

 

相比美国当局而言,这封公开信显示出起草人和签名人的视野更为宽阔,态度更加现实。

 

把中国当敌人是愚蠢的

 

史文领衔起草的这封公开信的主题是“中国不是敌人”,对此,中国外交部副部长乐玉成也有类似的观点,他的观点得到外媒的广泛报道。

 

在7月8-9日召开的世界和平论坛期间,乐玉成谈到中美关系时表示,与中国为敌是愚蠢的,将带来灾难性后果

 

 

 

美国商业内幕网站(Business Insider)网站和CNN均在报道中援引乐玉成的观点,“经济不平衡、贫富分化、基础设施老旧,这些都是他们(美国)自身的问题,不是中国造成的。不应该把中国当成替罪羊”。

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng at the World Peace Forum in the Chinese capital said, "The economic imbalance, polarization between the rich and poor, the aging of infrastructure — all of those have their own causes, but it's not because of China. [You] shouldn't see China as the scapegoat."

 

商业内幕网站:中国外交官警告称,美国把中国当敌人将造成“灾难性”后果

CNN:美国把中国当成敌人很“愚蠢”,中国外交官表示

 

《南华早报》也在报道中援引乐玉成的这个观点,同时在文中提到目前中美人文交流面临的问题。

 

南华早报:中国高级外交官警告美国,如果把中国当成“敌人”将面临“灾难性后果”

乐玉成表示,有报道称,有些华裔科学家因为与中国有关系,就遭到不公正对待,受到监控、歧视,甚至为此丢掉工作。

"There are some reports saying that some Chinese-American scientists in the US, just because they are Chinese scientists, they have been treated unfairly," he said. "They have been put under scrutiny, harassed, and some of them even lost their jobs."

他明确表示,这种以血统和种族为标签来阻挠两国人文交流的做法不得人心。

Hampering US-China people-to-people exchanges based on blood lineage and race is unpopular.

 

编辑:胡雨濛

实习生:杨敏仪

部分内容参考澎湃新闻

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