专访马来西亚前部长:美国拉“小圈子”孤立中国,推高供应链不确定性

亚太“一带一路”共策会会长、马来西亚前交通部长翁诗杰近日做客中国观察智库与中国日报新媒体联合推出的《连线》节目。

专访马来西亚前部长:美国拉“小圈子”孤立中国,推高供应链不确定性

2023-11-08 12:51 
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亚太“一带一路”共策会会长、马来西亚前交通部长翁诗杰近日做客中国观察智库与中国日报新媒体联合推出的《连线》节目。他表示,以美国为首的一些西方国家以“国家安全”为名,对中国搞“脱钩断链”,动摇了全球供应链稳定,这种做法只是出于对自身霸权丧失的担忧。在亚太地区,美国推出“印太经济框架” (IPEF) 试图同《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》 (RCEP) 竞争,但这种排他性的经济框架显然不是更好的替代选项。今年是中马全面战略伙伴关系建立10周年,两国应扩大合作范围,超越经济合作,促进人文交流,加深两国人民的相互理解。

“国家安全”只是托词

翁诗杰:

在单边主义抬头的大背景下,多边合作形势更加严峻,面临前所未有的挑战。预计域外大国将频频抛出“胡萝卜”,令东盟和金砖国家等现有成功的多边合作机制的凝聚力备受考验。中国仍将被超级大国视为对手,中国的任何伙伴外交举动,无论是对东盟,还是在RCEP和金砖机制内,都将遭到不断的敌意攻击。

Against the backdrop of rising unilateralism, the terrain of multilateral cooperation looks sad, to be more challenging than ever before. Existing successful models of multilateral cooperation like ASEAN and BRICS are anticipated to have their cohesion put to severe tests with specific carrots dangled by major powers from outside the region. China will still be targeted by the same rival superpower in the incessant hostile wedge-driving against any move of Beijing's partnership diplomacy, be it vis-a-vis ASEAN, or even in the staple of RCEP and BRICS.

回顾过去,其实是新冠疫情导致了供应链断裂。疫情给以美国为首的西方国家提供了一个方便的借口,以“供应链韧性受到影响”为名将中国与全球供应链隔离开来,但问题是西方国家也陷入了同样的困境。讽刺的是,其实正是美国在疫情后威胁要对中国进行技术“脱钩”,限制芯片等特定产品对华出口的做法,动摇了全球技术创新供应链的稳定性。美国与盟国在“国家安全”前提下的协同行动,显然是为了阻止中国的快速增长,以防“威胁”到美国主霸权。

In retrospect, it was the pandemic that induced supply chain disruption. And inspite of the coronavirus outbreak that gave the US-led West a convenient excuse to insulate China from the global supply chain, purportedly in the influence of resilience of supply chains, the West was, however, left in the same quandary either. However, ironically, it's the US threatening coerce for technology decoupling and its restrictive exports of specific innovations like chips, against China after the contagion that rock the stability of technological innovation supply chain worldwide. The concerted moves alongside its allies on the premise of "national security" is visibly designed to impede the rapid growth of China that threatens the US' primacy.

换句话说,美国的做法实际上植根于其作为全球领导者的地位被取代的深深痛苦。“国家安全”一词只不过是它信手拈来的的一个托词罢了。

In other words, the US draft of action is virtually rooted in its deeply seated anguish of displacement as a global leader. The term "national security" is nothing but the convenient justification in its current semantics.

“美国方案”并非优选

翁诗杰:

美国“印太战略”中,东南亚是一个关键地区,因为它是与中国进行军事对峙和经济竞争的理想“温床”。然而另一方面,对于参与“印太经济框架” (IPEF) 的东盟成员国来说,备受期待的美国关税削减和更大的市场准入仍是一个遥不可及的梦。

Under the prism of Washington's “Indo-Pacific” strategy, Southeast Asia is pivotal as it makes an ideal hotbed of military face-off and economic rivalry against Beijing. Yet, in return the much anticipated tariff reduction by Washington and larger market access to the US remain a distant dream to the ASEAN member states participating in the IPEF or the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.

东盟10个成员国中有7个加入了IPEF,以期寻求替代供应链,这是为了对冲所谓“过度依赖中国供应链”的风险。在某种程度上,日趋敏感、不断扩大的中美竞争意味着各国对整个地区供应链韧性的不确定性上升。

The scenario that seven of the 10 ASEAN member states joined IPEF in search of their alternative supply chain is a form of hedging against the purported over-dependence on the Chinese supply chains. To a certain extent, the straddling of the sensitive Sino-US rivalry indicates their uncertainties on the resilience of supply chains across the region.

从这个角度来看,东盟发起的RCEP似乎是一个比IPEF更可行的平台,以缓解任何可能的供应链中断的影响。答案的关键在中国。中国拥有较完整的产业链供应链,在RCEP区域经济一体化保持不变的情况下,中国与RCEP其他东盟对话伙伴一起,将令这个世界上有史以来最大的自由贸易市场在稳定供应链方面处于更有利的地位。在这种情况下,美国领导的IPEF故意将中国排除在外,却不给出任何可行的替代方案,肯定不是一个更好的选择。

In this perspective, the ASEAN-initiated RCEP itself perhaps provides a more viable platform vis-a-vis IPEF in mitigating the impacts of any possible supply chain disruption.The answer lies in China. With a full gamut of industrial supply chains in China, alongside the other ASEAN's dialog partners in RCEP, or the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the largest ever free trade market in the world -- is in a more tenable position to stabilize the supply chain, if its economic integration remains undivided. The deliberate exclusion of China in the US-led IPEF, without a viable substitute, is certainly far from being a better bet in this context.

同样,在“重构供应链以避免过度依赖中国”的托词下,某些行业被诱使迁出中国,东南亚新兴经济体似乎从这些举措中受益,但严峻的现实是,它们仍然依赖中国作为这些行业所需的许多原材料的主要供应来源。

Similarly, under the pretext of reconfiguration of supply chain to avert over-dependence on China, certain industries were enticed to be relocated out of China, the emerging economies in Southeast Asia have seemingly benefited from such moves but the hard reality remains that they still rely on China as the key supply source of many raw materials required for such industries.

“二轨外交”沟通民心

翁诗杰:

今年是中国-马来西亚全面战略伙伴关系建立10周年,明年是中马建交50周年。在我们庆祝我们持久的双边友谊的同时,我们应该努力探索和扩大合作范围,超越纯粹的经济合作。在现有关系的广度和深度基础上,两国应进一步促进人文交流,而不仅限于旅游。

This year witnessed the 10th anniversary of the China-Malaysia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), which is to be followed by the 50th anniversary of the founding of our diplomatic ties next year. While we celebrate our enduring bilateral friendship, we should endeavour to explore and extend our bounds of cooperation multi-dimensionally beyond sheer economics. The breadth and depth of the existing ties are to be given an opportunity to involve more exchanges at the people-to-people level beyond mere tourist exchange.

“二轨外交”将被置于中心舞台,它致力于通过各国人民之间的相互接触来促进深入的相互理解。

Track 2 Diplomacy specifically dedicated to promoting in-depth mutual understanding through mutual engagement between the peoples is to be given the centre stage.

游客互访只是其中的一部分,但游客数量并不一定能转化为两国互信的建立。让马来西亚乃至整个东盟的公众参与民间交流,主要目的就是要从正确的角度看待和理解中国。

Exchanges of tourist visits only constitute part of it but the statistics do not necessarily translate into confidence-building. The main thrust of engaging the general public in Malaysia, or even the entire ASEAN, lies more in addressing the perception and understanding of China in the right perspective.

一些人试图将中国的“一带一路”倡议作为竞选议题,不惜以双边关系为代价,为自己赚取政治利益。但如果老百姓都对中国有着足够的认识和了解,就肯定不会轻易上他们的当。这只能通过促进民间互动来实现,要注意组织协调,与大使馆为代表的“一轨外交”并行。

A well-informed electorate with a good understanding of China will certainly help insulate themselves from being influenced by the irresponsible quarters who seek to make China's Belt and Road Initiative an electioneering issue to their advantage, albeit at the expense of bilateral relations. This could only be done through people-to-people interaction, organized in a coherent and coordinated manner in parallel to the Track 1 Diplomacy represented by the embassies.

鉴于地区传统文化联系的优势,“一带一路”项目实施中体现的包容共生精神被认为有助于中国赢得马来西亚在内等东南亚邻国的欢迎,尽管西方不断制造隔阂,诋毁中国。

Given the advantage of traditional cultural links in the region, the virtues of inclusivity and symbiosis embodied in the BRI project implementation are supposedly instrumental in endearing China to its Southeast Asian neighbors, including Malaysia, albeit against a hostile backdrop of incessant wedge-driving and vilification by the West.

出品人:王浩 邢志刚

监制:柯荣谊 宋平

制片:张少伟

记者:沈一鸣 张欣然 栗思月 刘源 杨璐榕 张钊 栾瑞英 辛欣 唐文若

实习生:杨恒瑞 李经纬 田欣鹭 金奕伶

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