为了迎接党的二十大胜利召开，中国日报新媒体联合中国观察智库，推出访谈节目《连线·全球政要看中国十年》，邀请履历丰富、视角独特、洞悉深刻的国际政要，畅谈对中国这十年发展的感悟。

本期节目我们邀请了意大利前经济发展部副部长杰拉奇先生（Michele Geraci），和我们聊聊他对中国发展和近期国际局势的看法。欢迎关注我们的节目，回顾中国这波澜壮阔的十年。

中国经济更发达更稳健

Q:What words would you use to summarize China's economic performance over the past decade?

您会用哪几个词来总结过去十年中国经济的表现？

A:It's been strong, solid. And it has also shifted the gear from a very, very high growth and maybe unbalanced. In the last ten years, I have seen a lower growth but of a better quality. We have seen, for example, GDP going up, but not so much as the nine or ten percent of the decades before. But, we've also seen, disparities, for example, between the urban and rural residence begin to narrow again. So that means that China maintains a healthy gap to continue to be having migrants seen benefit from moving to rural areas to urban areas, but not so big to create social unrest.

更发达，更稳健。中国经济发展已不再追求高速但不平衡的发展方向。在过去的十年里，中国经济的增长率降低了，但质量有所提高。例如，我们已经看到，中国国内生产总值正在上升，但增速不再像几十年前的9%或10%那么多。但是，我们也看到，城乡居民之间的差距再次开始缩小。这意味着中国保持着一个相对健康的城乡差距，让农民工从农村到城市的迁移中受益，但城乡差距没有大到扰动社会稳定。

Q:What is your opinion on today's globalization progress?

您怎么看待如今的全球化进程？

A:It depends on what we mean by globalization, I think we have always thought that the globalization means the Western world. And I think this is in a little bit retrenching mode, trying to rely more on our own market. But then globalization is also growing in other parts of the world like Asia and Africa. So overall I see these two completely opposite trends. The Western-based globalization will reduce, but the global globalization that includes the other continents will actually grow. So it will be a new type of globalization. Maybe the West in one area, not isolated, but a little bit ring-fenced and then the rest of the two big continents, Asia and Africa, having their own trade and the global markets. So I see a decoupling between the West and the rest of the world. It is not where East and West. It’s the West, meaning Europe, parts of Europe, not all of Europe, some parts of Europe and the US and Canada, and then maybe Australia and New Zealand and then the rest of the world. So in a way, globalization will increase overall.

这要看我们如何定义“全球化”。我们一直认为全球化就是指西方世界。我认为这种只强调更多依靠自身市场的观点有点狭隘了。全球化也正在世界其他地区蓬勃发展，比如亚洲和非洲。所以总的来说，我看到了两种完全相反的趋势。以西方为中心的全球化进程会减缓，但全球其他地区的全球化会不断增长。所以这将形成一种新型的全球化局面，整个西方世界在一个区域内，并非对外孤立，但是有点“圈护”，然后亚洲和非洲两块大陆在全球市场中有着自己的贸易往来模式。因此，我认为西方与世界其他地区逐渐脱钩。这里并非指地理意义上和东方相对应的西方，而是指西方世界并非欧洲全部，而是欧洲的部分地区，美国和加拿大，然后或许也包含澳大利亚和新西兰，与之相对的是全球其他地区。因此，在一定程度上来看，全球化趋势整体会不断增长。

Q:Is the current shift of the industrial and supply chain of developed countries a kind of "de-globalization"?

现在发达国家在产业链布局上的转向，在您看来是不是一种“逆全球化”？

A:Not really, because the supply chain is based on many things and there are some areas of the world that cannot de-globalize. Europe does not have energy, for example, it does not have raw material. So this de-globalization could be mostly for production but not for material. So it's very complex. We could have a de-globalization or a decrease in globalization in the production processes. But we seem to be very much integrated because you need to have raw materials before you can process them. And that cannot be decoupled.

其实也不算是“逆全球化”，因为供应链是建立在很多要素的基础之上，其中一些要素只存在于世界上某个区域，所以无法完全去全球化。例如，欧洲缺乏能源，也缺乏原材料。所以这种去全球化可能主要是为了生产，原材料方面没法去全球化。这是一个非常复杂的议题。在生产过程中，可能会出现去全球化或全球化程度下降的现象。但实际上全球各地区联系依然很紧密，因为我们需要有原材料才能进行加工，这一点无法脱钩。

欧盟制裁俄罗斯乃意气用事

Q:The US and some European countries are taking sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. What consequences will this bring to the European and global economy?

您认为美国和部分欧洲国家因为俄乌冲突而对俄罗斯采取的经济制裁，会给欧洲和全球经济带来什么后果？

A:The sanction that the EU is putting on Russia, I'm afraid it is not the sanction that are useful to bring peace. I know almost as a fact that they were done on the emotion rather than on analysis. And so unfortunately, they are not working very well. In fact, with the increase in gas and oil prices, we are actually paying more money to Russia. So I think the sanctions are the wrong type of sanction. Completely the wrong type of sanction that would not bring peace, but could even have the opposite effect to even finance the war.

欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁在我看来，对带来和平无益，是一时意气用事而不是严谨分析的结果。因此，不幸的是，制裁的效果也不是很好。事实上，随着天然气和石油价格的上涨，我们实际上给俄罗斯送了更多钱。所以我认为这种制裁是错误的，不仅没法带来和平，还可能适得其反，最后为俄乌冲突变相提供了资金。

Q:How should Europe resolve the crisis in your opinion?

您觉得欧洲应该如何解决这场危机？

A:There are two ways to resolve crisis. Either you go to war or you do diplomacy. And I prefer, of course, the second one, because war is uncontrollable.

解决危机有两种方法。要么开战，要么外交斡旋。当然，我更喜欢后者，因为战争是不可控的。

There are some countries that happen to be in an unlucky position, in what I call it "a fracture areas" between the geopolitical blocs. And this is the case of the eastern part of Ukraine, which is not unique, there are many countries in the world that need to balance the demand of one side and the other side.  Like, we, in Europe are the allies of the United States, like other countries have, let's say a "grandfather" that in a way influences the policy. We have to be honest that not all countries are independent. The smaller countries, especially those that find themselves in those areas, they cannot choose one hundred percent of their policy. They are influenced by stronger geopolitical powers. So we need to find the solution that recognizes the fact that Russia needs to protect its own interests, military, and territorial integrity, which Putin thinks are at risk, while the rest of Europ‍e needs to have their own territorial integrity. It's not easy, but it's the only way to do it.

有一些国家恰好处于一个不幸的位置，我称之为地缘政治的“裂缝地带”。乌克兰东部就是这种情况。但它不是唯一一个特例，世界上有很多国家需要平衡一方和另一方的需求。比如，欧洲是美国的盟友，其他国家也存在这样的情况，美国在某种程度上像是一个“长辈”，影响了欧洲的政策制度。我们必须诚实地承认，并非所有的国家都是完全独立自主的。较弱小的国家，尤其是那些处于“裂缝地带”的国家，他们没办法百分之百地自主决策。他们受到更强大的地缘政治大国的影响。所以我们需要找到一个解决方案，既承认俄罗斯需要保护自己的利益，需要维护军事和领土完整，目前普京认为这些都岌岌可危，同时也满足欧洲其他地区想保持领土完整的需求。这并不容易，但这是唯一的方法。

中意双方在未来要寻求共识

Q:What is your insight into future Sino-Italy and Sino-Europe relationship?

您对未来的中意关系怎么看？

A:It's a bit challenging because we are both partners and competitors. So, what I have tried to do and what I will try to do and continue to do with my new role is always to find not the point of clash, but the point of overlap, the way actually we can work together without competing.

未来的中意关系会有一些挑战性，因为我们既是合作伙伴又是竞争对手。所以，我一直在做的，以及我未来在新职位上将继续去做的，是寻找共同利益增长点，寻求共识，不聚焦可能发生的冲突。这样我们就可以在避免正面竞争的情况下继续进行合作。

And so, for example, China, give you some ideas, green, we don't want to rely on the fossil fuel, maybe we don't want to rely on Russia. So what can we do, we need solar panel. Who makes solar panel? China. So we should today, import solar panels from China. The problem is, and this is the debate we're having here in Italy, we don't want to also rely for all our energy on the supplies of components from China either. So there's always a trade-off between the buying goods from abroad and relying entirely on that specific supplier. So diversification is the key part we need to start. And this is an area where I see China and Italy, it's a win-win for both to cooperate on these sectors, solar panel and development of green energy.

例如，意大利有意和中国在环保能源方面合作，我们不想一直依赖化石燃料，但我们也不想依赖俄罗斯（进口天然气）。所以我们能做什么呢，我们需要太阳能电池板。谁制造太阳能电池板呢？中国。所以如今我们应该从中国进口太阳能电池板。但是问题在于，这也是我们在意大利正在不断讨论的议题，我们也不想在能源方面太过依赖中国的能源设备零部件供应商。我们总是需要在从国外购买商品和完全依赖某个特定供应商之间进行权衡。所以目前我们的努力重点是多元化。我认为中国和意大利在太阳能发电和绿色新能源方面进行合作，最终会取得双赢。

Other areas could be the development of infrastructure. So I think now with this energy crisis, development of port is another big area. China has, of course, lots of experience. Italy has the geography. And we have ports, we are in the center of the Mediterranean. So that was the geographic strategic asset that we have. But we also need the cooperation from other countries, another company, investment, because it's not just the investment of ports, it's also we need to attract the traffic that goes into those ports. And where do the containers leave from? They leave from China and from the rest of Asia. So we want to develop ports, so we will become, let's say, one of the main landing ports in the Europe of goods, inside containers coming from Asia.

中意两国还可以在基础设施方面进行合作。随着目前能源危机愈演愈烈，发展港口是另一个中国拥有丰富经验的领域。意大利有着得天独厚的地理优势，我们也有很多港口。我们位于地中海的中心。这是意大利拥有的地理战略资产。但我们还需要其他国家的合作，吸引更多外商和投资，因为并不是投钱把港口建好这么简单，我们还需要吸引船只来此停泊靠港。这些装载集装箱的船都是从哪里出发的呢？中国和亚洲其他国家。所以我们想发展港口，希望意大利将来可以成为那些装载着欧洲货物的亚洲集装箱船只的主要登陆港之一。

结语

China and Italy could find a point of overlapping without clashing and achieve a win-win outcome, according to Mr Geraci. The two nations will grasp the opportunities the Belt and Road Initiative brings and gain success.在杰拉奇先生看来，中国和意大利，两国可以求同存异，取得共赢。中意两国可以抓住“一带一路”倡议带来的众多机遇，取得成功。

出品人：王浩

监制： 柯荣谊 宋平

制片：张少伟 栾瑞英

记者：沈一鸣 张欣然 史雪凡 周星佐

王韦翰 栗思月 刘源

实习生：吕文祎 林渝景 王博麟 孙伊茗

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