二、2019年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向
II. Economic and Social Development in 2019: Overall Requirements and Policy Directions
今年是新中国成立70周年，是全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标的关键之年。做好政府工作，要在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻党的十九大和十九届二中、三中全会精神，统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局，协调推进“四个全面”战略布局，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持新发展理念，坚持推动高质量发展，坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线，坚持深化市场化改革、扩大高水平开放，加快建设现代化经济体系，继续打好三大攻坚战，着力激发微观主体活力，创新和完善宏观调控，统筹推进稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险、保稳定工作，保持经济运行在合理区间，进一步稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期，提振市场信心，增强人民群众获得感、幸福感、安全感，保持经济持续健康发展和社会大局稳定，为全面建成小康社会收官打下决定性基础，以优异成绩庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年。
This year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It will be a crucial year for us as we endeavor to achieve the first Centenary Goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. To fulfill the work of government, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, we must:
follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era;
implement fully the guiding principles of the Party’s 19th National Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of its 19th Central Committee;
pursue coordinated progress in the five-sphere integrated plan;
pursue balanced progress in the four-pronged comprehensive strategy;
adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability;
continue to apply the new development philosophy;
continue to work for high-quality development;
continue to pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task;
continue to deepen market-orientated reforms and expand high-standard opening up;
work faster to modernize the economy;
continue the three critical battles;
invigorate micro entities;
explore innovations in and improve macro regulation;
make coordinated efforts to maintain stable growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, guard against risks, and ensure stability;
keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range;
take further steps to ensure stable employment, a stable financial sector, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable domestic investment, and stable expectations;
boost market confidence;
enable people to feel more satisfied, happy, and secure; and
sustain healthy economic development and maintain social stability.
By doing the above, we will create the pivotal underpinning for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and celebrate with outstanding accomplishments the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.
综合分析国内外形势，今年我国发展面临的环境更复杂更严峻，可以预料和难以预料的风险挑战更多更大，要做好打硬仗的充分准备。困难不容低估，信心不可动摇，干劲不能松懈。我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，拥有足够的韧性、巨大的潜力和不断迸发的创新活力，人民群众追求美好生活的愿望十分强烈。我们有战胜各种困难挑战的坚定意志和能力，经济长期向好趋势没有也不会改变。
A full analysis of developments in and outside China shows that in pursuing development this year, we will face a graver and more complicated environment as well as risks and challenges, foreseeable and otherwise, that are greater in number and size. We must be fully prepared for a tough struggle. The difficulties we face must not be underestimated, our confidence must not be weakened, and the energy we bring to our work must not be allowed to wane. China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development and has ample resilience, enormous potential, and great creativity to unleash. The longing of our people for a better life is strong. We have the unshakable will and the ability needed to prevail over difficulties and challenges of any kind, and our economic fundamentals are sound and will remain sound over the long term.
今年经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：国内生产总值增长6%－6.5%；城镇新增就业1100万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右，城镇登记失业率4.5%以内；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右；国际收支基本平衡，进出口稳中提质；宏观杠杆率基本稳定，金融财政风险有效防控；农村贫困人口减少1000万以上，居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步；生态环境进一步改善，单位国内生产总值能耗下降3%左右，主要污染物排放量继续下降。上述主要预期目标，体现了推动高质量发展要求，符合我国发展实际，与全面建成小康社会目标相衔接，是积极稳妥的。实现这些目标，需要付出艰苦努力。
With the above in mind, the main projected targets for economic and social development this year are set as follows:
GDP growth of 6–6.5 percent
Over 11 million new urban jobs, a surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, and a registered urban unemployment rate within 4.5 percent
CPI increase of around 3 percent
A basic equilibrium in the balance of payments, and stable, better-structured imports and exports
A macro leverage ratio that is basically stable, and effective prevention and control of financial and fiscal risks
A reduction of over 10 million in the rural poor population
Personal income growth that is basically in step with economic growth
A further improvement in the environment
A drop of around 3 percent in energy consumption per unit of GDP
Continued reductions in the discharge of major pollutants
The above projected targets are ambitious but realistic—they represent our aim of promoting high-quality development, are in keeping with the current realities of China’s development, and are aligned with the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. But to realize these goals we need to redouble our efforts.
要正确把握宏观政策取向，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，实施就业优先政策，加强政策协调配合，确保经济运行在合理区间，促进经济社会持续健康发展。
We will ensure that the right direction is set for the pursuit of our macro policies. We will continue to pursue a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, implement an employment-first policy, and strengthen the coordination between these policies to keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range and sustain healthy economic and social development.
积极的财政政策要加力提效。今年赤字率拟按2.8%安排，比去年预算高0.2个百分点；财政赤字2.76万亿元，其中中央财政赤字1.83万亿元，地方财政赤字9300亿元。适度提高赤字率，综合考虑了财政收支、专项债券发行等因素，也考虑为应对今后可能出现的风险留出政策空间。今年财政支出超过23万亿元，增长6.5%。中央对地方均衡性转移支付增长10.9%。改革完善县级基本财力保障机制，缓解困难地区财政运转压力，决不让基本民生保障出问题。
We will pursue a proactive fiscal policy with greater intensity and enhance its performance. Deficit-to-GDP ratio this year is projected at 2.8 percent, a 0.2-percentage-point increase over that of last year. The budgetary deficit is projected at 2.76 trillion yuan, with a central government deficit of 1.83 trillion yuan and a local government deficit of 0.93 trillion yuan. In moderately increasing the deficit-to-GDP ratio, we have given full consideration to factors such as government revenue and expenditure and the issuance of special bonds; we have also taken into account the need to leave policy space to address risks that could arise in the future.Government expenditure is budgeted at over 23 trillion yuan, a 6.5 percent increase. The central government’s transfer payments to local governments for equalizing access to basic public services will increase by 10.9 percent. We will reform and improve the mechanism for ensuring basic fiscal capacity at the county level, ease the pressure of budgetary constraints faced by some localities, and make certain that people’s basic living needs are met.
稳健的货币政策要松紧适度。广义货币M2和社会融资规模增速要与国内生产总值名义增速相匹配，以更好满足经济运行保持在合理区间的需要。在实际执行中，既要把好货币供给总闸门，不搞“大水漫灌”，又要灵活运用多种货币政策工具，疏通货币政策传导渠道，保持流动性合理充裕，有效缓解实体经济特别是民营和小微企业融资难融资贵问题，防范化解金融风险。深化利率市场化改革，降低实际利率水平。完善汇率形成机制，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
Our prudent monetary policy will be eased or tightened to the right degree. Increases in M2 money supply and aggregate financing should be in keeping with nominal GDP growth to keep major indicators within an appropriate range.In implementation, we will ensure the valve on aggregate monetary supply is well controlled and refrain from using a deluge of stimulus policies; but will also use flexibly a variety of monetary policy instruments to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity, effectively mitigate difficulties faced in the real economy, especially by private enterprises and small and micro businesses, in accessing affordable financing, and forestall and defuse financial risks. We will deepen reforms to strengthen the market’s role in setting interest rates and lower real interest rates. We will improve the exchange rate mechanism and keep the RMB exchange rate generally stable and at an adaptive and balanced level.
就业优先政策要全面发力。就业是民生之本、财富之源。今年首次将就业优先政策置于宏观政策层面，旨在强化各方面重视就业、支持就业的导向。当前和今后一个时期，我国就业总量压力不减、结构性矛盾凸显，新的影响因素还在增加，必须把就业摆在更加突出位置。稳增长首要是为保就业。今年城镇新增就业要在实现预期目标的基础上，力争达到近几年的实际规模，既保障城镇劳动力就业，也为农业富余劳动力转移就业留出空间。只要就业稳、收入增，我们就更有底气。
An employment-first policy will be pursued with full force. Employment is the cornerstone of wellbeing, and the wellspring of wealth. This year, for the first time, we are elevating the employment-first policy to the status of a macro policy. This is to increase society-wide attention to employment and support for it. Both in the immediate future and for some time to come, the pressure on aggregate job creation will continue unabated, the related structural issues will become more pronounced, and new factors that affect employment will continue to grow. All this means we must give greater priority to increasing employment. Maintaining stable growth, first and foremost, is to ensure employment. This year, on top of the urban job creation target, we will work to reach the actual employment figures of the past few years so as to ensure employment for the urban workforce while creating nonagricultural employment opportunities for the surplus rural workforce. With stable employment and increasing incomes, we can continue to be fully confident.
要继续坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线，在“巩固、增强、提升、畅通”八个字上下功夫。更多采取改革的办法，更多运用市场化、法治化手段，巩固“三去一降一补”成果，增强微观主体活力，提升产业链水平，畅通国民经济循环，推动经济高质量发展。
We will continue to pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task, focusing on consolidating, strengthening, upgrading, and ensuring unimpeded flows: we will use more reforms and means in accordance with market principles and law to consolidate the gains made in the five priority tasks; to strengthen the dynamism of micro entities; to upgrade industrial chains; and to ensure unimpeded flows in the economy, thus moving toward high-quality development.
要继续打好三大攻坚战，精准发力、务求实效。防范化解重大风险要强化底线思维，坚持结构性去杠杆，防范金融市场异常波动，稳妥处理地方政府债务风险，防控输入性风险。精准脱贫要坚持现行标准，聚焦深度贫困地区和特殊贫困群体，加大攻坚力度，提高脱贫质量。污染防治要聚焦打赢蓝天保卫战等重点任务，统筹兼顾、标本兼治，使生态环境质量持续改善。
We will continue the three critical battles and adopt precise measures to deliver solid outcomes.
To forestall and defuse major risks, we should be clear about potential dangers, continue structural deleveraging, forestall abnormal financial market fluctuations, deal prudently with local government debt risk, and guard against and control externally-generated risks. We will intensify precision poverty alleviation efforts in accordance with current standards, with the focus on deeply impoverished areas and the most vulnerable groups to deliver solid outcomes. In addressing pollution, we will focus on major priorities such as the fight to keep our skies blue, take a holistic approach, address both symptoms and root causes, and make continuous improvements to the environment.
做好今年政府工作，要注重把握好以下关系。
For the government to deliver this year, we need to get the following relationships right.
一要统筹好国内与国际的关系，凝心聚力办好自己的事。我国仍处于并将长期处于社会主义初级阶段，仍是世界最大发展中国家。发展是解决我国一切问题的基础和关键，必须牢牢扭住经济建设这个中心，毫不动摇坚持发展是硬道理、发展应该是科学发展和高质量发展的战略思想，不断解放和发展社会生产力。在国际形势复杂多变的背景下，我们要保持战略定力，按确定的目标和部署推进工作，更好利用国际国内两个市场两种资源，敢于应对挑战，善于化危为机，牢牢把握发展主动权。
First, we need to handle in a holistic way the relationship between domestic and international issues, and focus on running our own affairs well. China is still and will long remain in the primary stage of socialism; and it continues to be the world’s largest developing country. Development is the foundation of and key to solving all our country’s problems. We must pursue with dedication the central task of economic development, never falter in our commitment to the strategic thinking that development is of paramount importance and that it should be sound and of a high quality, and continue to unleash and develop productive forces. Against the backdrop of a complex and fast-changing international environment, we must maintain strategic focus and carry out work in accordance with the goals and plans already set. We should make better use of both international and domestic markets and resources, face challenges squarely, turn risks into opportunities, and remain firm in our commitment to pursuing development.
二要平衡好稳增长与防风险的关系，确保经济持续健康发展。长期积累的诸多风险隐患必须加以化解，但要遵循规律，讲究方式方法，按照坚定、可控、有序、适度要求，在发展中逐步化解，坚决避免发生系统性、区域性风险。在当前经济下行压力加大情况下，出台政策和工作举措要有利于稳预期、稳增长、调结构，防控风险要把握好节奏和力度，防止紧缩效应叠加放大，决不能让经济运行滑出合理区间。同时，也不能只顾眼前，采取损害长期发展的短期强刺激政策，产生新的风险隐患。
Second, we need to achieve the right balance in the relationship between maintaining stable growth and guarding against risks, to ensure sustained, healthy economic development. The many risks and potential problems that have built up over the years demand stronger mitigating action, but in doing so we need to observe objective laws and take the right approach. Our approach must be firm, controllable, and systematic, and it should be applied with the right degree of intensity. We need to defuse risks step by step in the course of pursuing development and decisively forestall any systemic or regional risks. Against the backdrop of mounting downward pressure on the economy, the policies and measures we adopt should ensure stable expectations, stable growth, and structural adjustments. In working to forestall and control risks, we need to get the pace and intensity right. We should see that the effects of tightening are not amplified, and we must never allow economic indicators to slide out of the appropriate range. At the same time, we must not attend only to immediate concerns or adopt short-term strong stimulus policies that will end up undermining long-term development and generating new risks.
三要处理好政府与市场的关系，依靠改革开放激发市场主体活力。只要市场主体有活力，就能增强内生发展动力、顶住经济下行压力。要大力推进改革开放，加快建立统一开放、竞争有序的现代市场体系，放宽市场准入，加强公正监管，打造法治化、国际化、便利化的营商环境，让各类市场主体更加活跃。
Third, we need to balance the relationship between government and market, and energize market entities through reform and opening up. As long as market entities are energized, we can boost the internal forces driving development and withstand the downward pressure on the economy. We must work hard to advance reform and opening up, speed up the establishment of a unified and open, competitive and orderly modern market system, relax restrictions on market access, ensure impartial regulation, and create a business environment based on rule of law that is internationalized and enabling, in order to energize market entities.
从根本上说，市场活力和社会创造力源于亿万人民积极性的发挥。要坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，尽力而为、量力而行，切实保障基本民生，推动解决重点民生问题，促进社会公平正义，让人民过上好日子。中国人民勤劳智慧，具有无限的创新创造潜能，只要充分释放出来，中国的发展就一定会有更为广阔空间。
Ultimately, market vitality and social creativity stem from the initiative of hundreds of millions of people being put into action. We must stay true to the vision of people-centered development and do everything within our capacity to meet people’s basic needs, resolve key problems affecting living standards, promote social fairness and justice, and help our people achieve better lives. The Chinese are an industrious and talented people and possess boundless potential for innovation and creativity. All we need to do is unleash that potential and the space for China’s development going forward will doubtless be vast.
